Klaus Kondrup om den seneste situation: Dialogen er åbnet og krigen er tabt

The net tightens. Washington is without leverage towards Moscow when it comes to Ukraine and must draw in broader concerns of the European security architecture. Dialogue is open. The war is lost.

A phone call

Adjusting to reality is difficult for Kyiv, Bruxelles, and Washington. Leading the way, the new administration in USA are engaging in dialogue with the Kremlin. Let us just say that the skillevel is uneven, but Trump and his men have been clever in opening the situation, while Kyiv is in denial, and Bruxelles is still intoxicated by the U.K. warmongering. Recently, a phone call between president Donal J. Trump and president Vladimir V. Putin resulted in an agreement concerning a ban on targeting energy infrastructure. This is relatively easy to monitor, and could result in trust building. There are many different interests in play. Kyiv seems to be cut off from conversations and the U.K. is sidelined, as the main parties to the conflict commences a dance, where building of confidence in the others ability to keep their word, will delineate the possibility for further steps towards a truce. If the agreement is not sabotaged along the way, then incentives could rise to take further steps already the following month. The Europeans are currently without influence, talking about castles in the sky as usual, acting as a spoiler; EU has formed consensus on the lowest common denominator: continuation of conflict. More dead Ukrainian men; more Ukrainian women in despair.

AFR stumbling in

Rasputitsa came early in 2025. Larger offensive operations may soon be feasible as the mud seems to dry soon. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is bogged down along two axis: One from Zaporizhzha streching to the east of Dniepropetrovsk and another from Pokrovsk to Kupyansk. the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFR) is preparing to move west of Pokrovsk and east around Kupyansk this summer, having already delimited supplies through the logistic hub, Pokrovsk, while successfully crossing the river north of the fortress, Kupyansk. AFU are brave and strong fighters occasionally well led, using its force with great ingenuity. At times AFU suffers greatly from mere propaganda stunts, designed to bolster the credibility of the president of Ukraine in the west, while sacrificing large contingencies of men. An enklave of AFU forces were about to be caught in the south of Kursk oblast inside Russia. The plan from AFR was threefold: First pressure was added to draw forces to the north. Then the supply roads were sought blocked by a pincer in the south. And then 800 soldiers were attacking the town of Sudzha through a pipeline. The prospect was the encirclement of around 10.000 men. This could have been a devastating blow sending the whole of AFU onto the robes. It failed. Large parts of the AFU, amongst these 82nd airborne and 47th mechanized, managed to safe a good part of their men and materiel.

Talks continue

The situation on the ground calls for capitulation. For 1,5 year now, it has been obvious to all observers that there was no way Kyiv was going to be able to improve its position; still the government in Ukraine and its masters have decided to lose more than half a million men to come to this point, where Washington has lost interest in its proxy and is seeking to look beyond defeat. Great uncertainty reigns. The outcome of this war is not yet clear. The Kremlin has much to win from coming to terms with the superpower at direct talks. Moscow wants withdrawal from annexed territories, a change of guards in Kyiv with a ban on the anti-russian regime, and guarantees that NATO is not expanding into Ukraine. What is on the table beyond that we cannot know. And what Washington can actually deliver on the ground in Ukraine, well that is what shall now stand the test of time. One month of controlling AFU and paramilitary units are not flying drones into plants or other strategic infrastructure. We will see. What seems likely is that dialogue is sustained and talks continue.

Klaus Kondrup er geopolitikkyndig og redaktør på Ukrainedebat.dk Hans analyser af global politik kan følges direkte på Substack.